2016: What is Ahead for Portland & SW Washington Real Estate

Many people are wondering about what to expect for 2016! Me too!

Let’s check out the latest market data available from RMLS–effective 11/30….

November 2015 Market Action
Here are a few quick thoughts about what I experienced this past year and what I think we’ll be looking at going forward.

  1. I expect 2016 to continue to be more of what happened this year. Lean inventory and values rising.
    1. As of the end of November, we are currently at 2.0 months of inventory in Portland.
    2. SW Washington is at 2.8 months of inventory
    3. Portland Metro has averaged 6% increase in value over 2014
    4. Vancouver Metro has averaged a 8.6% increase in value
  2. The Fed may raise rates again however that does not mean that interest rates for home loans will be deeply impacted. Nor should it scare buyers away.
  3. Portland continues to be in a housing crisis–everyone is moving here and rents are skyrocketing.
    1. Case in point, according to Zillow, it used to be that three years of renting worked financially before it was prudent to buy.
    2. That calculation is now 2.2 years. After two years of renting in this market, it makes more fiscal sense for one to purchase a home.
    3. Rents continue to increase like crazy–Portland is constantly toggling between New York City and San Francisco for first and second place in the nation regarding high rental occupancy rates i.e. no vacancies.
  4. For those buyers with plans to cross the river, Vancouver is a wise place to be looking if you want more bang for your buck. Larger homes, larger lots in many areas, less price per square feet. Slightly higher inventory and values are increasing at a faster clip on average but a better shot over Portland.

Could something happen to drastically change our economy again? Sure and in looking at the source of the 2008 crash…we’re not getting set up by the banks and poor lending practices. So it would have to be something outside the general real estate market to cause issues. Could Portland eventually slow down on the increase in values? Sure. But like all supply and demand, with so many people moving here–I’m not seeing demand let up. We need more listings/supply for things to even out. Unless something were to happen globally, I expect us to continue having a sellers market into 2017.

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